2040: Growth

One of the worst disputes against sustainability is that sustainability cannot coexists with economic growth of the economy.
This is a critical factor for the green economy so I decides to consider also the GDP (Gross Domestic Product, in $), but we need to consider GDP per capita ($/p).

In this game I want to check if it is possible to have a sustainable growth in a scenario of achieving CO2 net zero in 20 years.

From a Stanford University paper (link, page 5) a sustainable GDP growth is 2% (as per historical trend in the last 150 years).

Now we need to find the data of the GDP per capita in the different areas we want to consider.
The best source available is for sure the World Bank (link) where you have all required data.

Using the GDP/pc let us to check a second opportunity: we want in future to live in a equal world where everyone has same life style level.
So we have 2 new key principles for the game:

  1. GDP/pc of industrialised areas has 2% of growth for 20 years (simplifying it is equivalent to +40%)
  2. GDP/pc of  non-industrialised areas will achieve the same amount of industrial areas in 20 years (this will be different region by region)

The hypothesis I want to test is to simulate 2% of growth for the most industrialised areas and simulate a growth rate for all areas to achieve the same level of GDP per capita of the most industrialised ones.

GPD/pc per area

This table is really interesting and powerful to show the differences across the areas of the world.
Together with the chart about emissions per area can give a great vision of the problem we want to solve.

 

Finally we want to introduce another key principle:

  1. to sustain economical growth we need to make resources growing at the same rate.

Given the fixed GHG resource production, this amazing result can be achieved only with green emission production that should eventually compensate GHG emissions to achieve net-zero.

Resource growth per area

In the last column I have tweaked the real numbers (red italic numbers) the make the game playable, even if still hard to win.

As you can see the model shows numbers that confirm how hard is this goal in reality.
But winning the game maybe is not the real goal of the game, we want to aspire to an equal and sustainable world and 2040 let you try to achieve this aspiration.